Modeling Overview
Last updated
Last updated
The Reorienting to Recovery (R2R) project uses two models to model scenarios: the Winter Run Life Cycle Model and the Central Valley Project Improvement Act (CVPIA) Science Integration Team (SIT) models.
This site will be focused on specific rulesets and alterations made to the CVPIA SIT models as part of the Reorienting to Recovery Process. For in-depth documentation on the models please refer to the original model documentation sites linked below:
Throughout the R2R SDM process, the SDM team will go through multiple rounds of designing modeling scenarios.
All Scenarios will be evaluated relative to a baseline scenario representing current conditions.
Baseline Model Run
The “baseline scenario” represents the status quo and current management.
Model Inputs:
Flow data - 2019 CalSim BiOp
Temperature data - modeled consistent with 2019 CalSim BiOp
Habitat data - existing SIT DSM habitat + planned restoration projects. The methodology for incorporating restoration projects into current SIT habitat data can be found here.
Round 1: Bookend Scenarios
Bookend scenarios represent distinct combinations of intense management actions focused around one theme, value, action type, or salmonid run. The goal of these bookend scenarios is to learn how the system responds to very different, intense management options, as well as learn how different Performance Measures (PMs) like salmonid biological objectives, water supply, harvest, and recreation will respond to scenarios.
Round 2: Blended Scenarios
Blended Scenarios address the key question of how salmon recovery can be achieved through different combinations of management actions. Blended scenarios build on findings of the bookend scenarios to explore multiple, distinct approaches to meet salmon recovery criteria of biological objectives.
Round 3: Balanced Scenarios
Blended Scenarios address the question of how scenarios can be modified to achieve salmonid recovery while balancing other socioeconomic and values in the Central Valley. These build on the findings of the Round 2 Blenddd scenarios, exploring combinations of actions that meet biological recovery criteria while better satisfying other socioeconomic interests.
The models are undergoing updates to be able to model all the Performance Metrics tracked in the recovery SDM process. FlowWest is working directly with the recovery planning team to define model updates, document updated methodology, and make model code changes. As updates are incorporated into the models, in-depth documentation of each update will be listed below.
See for more details on data inputs and methods that go into modeling the Round 1 bookend scenarios.
See for more details on data inputs and methods that go into modeling the Round 2 blended scenarios.
See for more details on data inputs and methods that go into modeling the Round 3 balanced scenarios.
Hatchery Logic Updates - The modeling team made extensive updates to the models to better represent hatchery dynamics including releases of juvenile hatchery fish in the model over time, tracking of proportion hatchery at various stages in the model, stray rate logic updates, variations in adult return age, and differences in fecundity of hatchery vs natural fish. Please see for additional details.
Harvest Rates Updates- The modeling team updated adult harvest rates to reflect current harvest numbers. Harvest rates for each tributary were pulled from Table II-1 of .
San Joaquin Habitat Updates- The modeling team updated Spring Run San Joaquin spawning, rearing, and floodplain habitat to extend up until Friant Dam and introduced 51 adult Spring Run seeds to the San Joaquin River. Details on the SJ habitat modeling approach can be found .
Flow-based outmigration logic for the San Joaquin: For scenarios implementing a functional flow hydrograph, the modeling team updated outmigration survival on the San Joaquin to be flow-dependent. Details on can be found .