Bookend Scenario Overview

This page gives descriptions and model inputs of all the R2R bookend scenarios

Bookend Scenarios

Scenario	Description	Model inputs
Baseline	The “baseline scenario” represents the status quo and current management.	Flow data - 2019 CalSim BiOp Temperature data - modeled consistent with 2019 CalSim BiOp Habitat data - existing SIT DSM habitat + planned restoration projects. The methodology for incorporating restoration projects to current SIT habitat data can be here.
Max Habitat	Understand benefits to salmon if we only use habitat projects as a tool to recovery.	Flow data - 2019 CalSim BiOp Temperature data - modeled consistent with 2019 CalSim BiOp Theoretical Maximum Habitat data - The methodology for generating theoretical maximum habitat data can be found here.
Max flows (unimpaired + flood control)	Understand benefits of more flow to salmonid and potential tradeoffs to water supply. Additional model runs could evaluate sensitivity of outcomes to magnitude of flows (% unimpaired).	Flow data - CalSim Run of River (note: Increased flows based on available CalSim data for “Run of the River” scenario [EXP1], which simulates unimpaired flows under natural hydrograph, where 1) Projects do not store water, although releases will occur for flood control and dam safety purposes, 2) Senior water right holders can divert when water is available, and 3) no SWP/CVP exports occur. This version is run using a 2035 CT climate change hydrology) Temperature data - HEC-5Q Run of River where available, modeled using air-to-water temperature regression, double regression modeling, or stream gage data. Habitat data - Habitat inputs are generated based on the CalSim Run of River flows and existing SIT flow to area curves.
No harvest	What happens if we turn off harvest?	Inputs consistent with Baseline. No ocean or river harvest.
No hatchery	What happens if we turn off hatcheries?	Inputs consistent with Baseline. No hatchery releases.
Max hatchery capacity, Increase Survival	What happens if we build hatchery capacity and survival?	Inputs consistent with Baseline. Increase hatchery operations and modify operations to increase survival (e.g., release fish at Chipps Island)
Max habitat and flow	Build on max habitat scenario to understand interactions between habitat and flow. What happens if all potential habitat is actually "realized" and inundated with flows?	Same actions as Max habitat (Scenario 1) and Max flows (Scenario 2)

The SDM working group will develop additional fine-tuned model scenarios. This page will be updated as new scenarios are built.