Values and Performance Metrics

This page describes the modeling approach used to calculate each performance metric measured by the Reorienting to Recovery SDM.

Below are summary tables for each value and performance metric put together by Compass, the R2R planning team, and FlowWest. As additional methods are developed, these tables will be expanded on.

Salmon Biological

Value	Performance Measure	Description & Methods
1: Salmonid abundance	1: Adult abundance	Represents an interest in increasing salmonid abundance across the CV. Can be estimated with models as annual number of adult spawning salmonids in each tributary and ocean, tracked for 20 years. Adult abundance for each year and tributary is a direct output from the SIT DSMs and is summarized to show average Central Valley annual abundance.
2: Salmonid productivity	2.1: Cohort Replacement Rate (CRR)	Represents an interest in having growing or stable salmonid populations. CRR can be estimated with models as the adult natural origin return ratio in each tributary, tracked for 20 years. CRR is calculated as the number of natural origin adult returns in year X+3 divided by the number of in-river spawners in year X. CRR is calculated for each year and tributary and then averaged across tributaries and years.
2: Salmonid productivity	2.2: Population growth rate	Represents an alternative way to capture growing or stable salmonid populations. Can be estimated with models as average trend in population growth over a 20-year period.
3: Salmonid spatial structure	3.1: Independent populations	Represents an interest in increasing and maintaining the distribution of salmonids across historically occupied watersheds. Watershed-specific abundance estimates from models can be used to calculate the number of independent viable populations in each diversity group per evolutionary significant unit (ESU)/run.
3: Salmonid spatial structure	3.2: % of potential independent populations	Represents an alternative way to capture the distribution of salmonid, calculated as the % of potential independent viable populations in each diversity group per ESU/run.
3: Salmonid spatial structure	3.3: Dependent populations	Represents an interest in increasing and maintaining the distribution of salmonids across historically occupied watersheds. Watershed-specific abundance estimates from models can be used to calculate the number of dependent populations in each diversity group per ESU/run.
4: Salmonid genetic diversity	4: pHOS	Represents an interest in preserving genetic diversity of natural populations and minimizing potential negative demographic effects from hatchery origin fish. Salmonid models are currently being modified to estimate proportion of hatchery origin spawners (pHOS).
5: Salmonid life history diversity	5.1: Age distribution of spawning adults	Represents an interest in preserving life history diversity (age of spawners) in natural populations. Salmonid models can be used to estimate the minimum % of each age class of adults and check if targets are met (Age 4 >35%, Age 5+ >20%).
5: Salmonid life history diversity	5.2: Size distribution of juveniles	Represents an interest in preserving life history diversity (size distribution of juveniles) in natural populations. Salmonid models can be used to estimate the variation in juvenile abundance of each life stage (fry, parr, yearling) and calculate variation across years. Size distribution of juveniles is summarized in a single metric by using a Shannon diversity index.
5: Salmonid life history diversity	5.3: Size and timing of juveniles at ocean entry	Represents an interest in preserving life history diversity (size and timing of juveniles at ocean entry) in natural populations. Size distribution and timing of juveniles at ocean entry is summarized in a single metric by using a Shannon diversity index.
5: Salmonid life history diversity	5.4: Habitat diversity	Represents an interest in preserving habitat diversity that facilitates life history diversity in natural populations. Could be estimated as the amount and relative % of available habitat of different types (measured in area and days). Specific methods using the salmon models to calculate and compare optimal habitat ratios to population growth are being developed.
6: Abundance, productivity, and distribution at levels that support ecosystem health	6: Ecosystem health	Represents an interest in maintaining resilient and functioning ecosystems due to adequate salmonid abundance. Could be captured with a proxy metric of ratio of spawner abundance to habitat (marine derived nutrient proxy). The marine derived nutrient proxy metric gives the grams of marine nutrient per square meters of river. To calculate marine derived nutrient proxy, we calculated the total acres by multiplying habitat extent lengths by river width. We then multiplied the average annual number of spawners by the average weight (assumed 21 grams) and divided by our total area (square meters) to get a grams of marine derived nutrient per square meters.
7: Biological recovery objectives met by certain time	7: Time to biological recovery	Represents an interest to recover salmonids quickly. Can be estimated by salmon models as the # of years until recovery objectives are met. See Phase 1 report for a list of recovery objectives.

Habitat & Ecological Processes

8: Salmon habitat	8.1: Wetted acre days of suitable juvenile rearing habitat	Represents an interest in supporting healthier, complex, and dynamic freshwater ecosystems and improving habitat quality. This metric can be estimated from the model as the model keeps track of the frequency and duration that each habitat type is inundated for on monthly basis and can thus be reported as a mean annual value.
8: Salmon habitat	8.2: Wetted acre days of suitable spawning habitat	Represents an interest in supporting healthier, complex, and dynamic freshwater ecosystems and improving habitat quality. This metric can be estimated from the model as the model keeps track of the frequency and duration that each spawning habitat is inundated for on monthly basis and can thus be reported as a mean annual value.
8: Salmon habitat	8.3: Spawning habitat decay rate	Represents an interest in supporting healthier, complex, and dynamic freshwater ecosystems, improving habitat quality, and maintaining riverine condition. A function for spawning decay rate was added to the CVPIA SIT model in early March 2023 and will be used to estimate spawning habitat decay rate over a 20-year period.
9: Riverine habitat, structure, and function	9.1: Wetted acre days	Represents an interest in maintaining ecological riverine processes including increased flow, freedom or rivers, and integrity of waterways. Can be estimated, for each tributary, with models as total number of months over the 20-year period that the cubic feet per second (CFS) threshold for floodplain activation is meet.
9: Riverine habitat, structure, and function	9.2: Functional flow metric	Represents an interest in maintaining ecological riverine processes including increased flow, freedom or rivers, and integrity of waterways. Potentially compare ecological functional flows to current hydrology. Methods in development.
9: Riverine habitat, structure, and function	9.3: Inundated acres associated with a flood of a given recurrence interval	Represents an interest in maintaining ecological riverine processes including increased flow, freedom or rivers, and integrity of waterways. To evaluate if more floodplain habitat has been created, we can select a flood event (10 yr, 50 yr, 100 yr) associated with a CFS metric. Selection of CFS will be made by reviewing flow to area curves and reviewing CFS thresholds that habitat projects are activated at. Example, using 2-year, 30-d medium flow for floodplain projects.

Access to Land & Water

10: Land/water access – Indigenous/cultural	10: Locations and acreages of access areas by watershed	Represents an interest in maintaining and preserving indigenous culture around salmon, including increasing access and rights to lands/rivers. We are actively consulting with tribes to determine what potential actions in this process could negatively impact tribal lands and determine how we can best track effects of management to cultural lands/sites.
11: Managed wetlands	11: Managed wetlands	Represents an interest in maintaining managed wetlands throughout the Central Valley. Discussing how to calculate current allocation of water for managed wetlands (timing and amount in different water year types) and identifying what areas could really be impacted by actions in this process.

Economics (Harvest)

Value	Performance metric	Description
12: Harvest	12.1: Annual number of adults in rivers (above abundance numbers required to meet biological objectives)	Represents an interest to 1) maintain and preserve indigenous culture around salmon, including use of salmon as food, 2) increase recreational opportunities for fishing, sharing fishing experience with children, and connecting with nature, and 3) support sustainable long-term in river harvest levels that are both ecologically sound and economically viable for the fishing industry. Calculated as the number of surviving adults in river beyond what is necessary to maintain biological objectives.
12: Harvest	12.2: Annual number of adults in oceans (above abundance numbers required to meet biological objectives)	Represents an interest in supporting sustainable long-term commercial harvest levels that are both ecologically sound and economically viable for the fishing industry. Calculated as the number of surviving adults in ocean beyond what is necessary to maintain biological objectives.
12: Harvest	12.3: % of years where annual number of adults in rivers and oceans is > harvest minimums + abundance numbers required to meet biological objectives	Represents an interest in supporting sustainable long-term in river and commercial harvest levels. Can be estimated in the model with the number of surviving adults in river and ocean beyond what is necessary to maintain biological objectives. Calculate % of years annual abundance is >= harvest minimums (e.g., 200K: minimum annual number of harvestable fish to support Indigenous, recreational, and commercial uses).
12: Harvest	12.4: Maximum number of consecutive years when annual abundance is < harvest minimums in rivers and oceans (200K above abundance numbers required to meet biological objectives)	Represents an interest in supporting sustainable long-term in river and commercial harvest levels. Can be estimated in the model with the number of surviving adults in river and ocean beyond what is necessary to maintain biological objectives. Calculate maximum number of consecutive years when annual abundance is < harvest minimums (e.g., 200K).

Economics (Water & Agriculture)

13: Water supply and delivery	13.1: Annual acre ft of water divertible water for agriculture (average for Dry and Critically Dry years)	Represents concerns about 1) the increased cost of water and economic cascade, 2) the cost and opportunity cost of salmon recovery (i.e., less money available for other things interested parties value), and 3) reducing water supply to farms that grow the food that interested parties' families eats. The CalSim model used in life cycle model generates a trend report that summaries water deliveries for agriculture and can be averaged across Dry and Critically Dry years.
13: Water supply and delivery	13.2: Annual acre ft of water divertible water for municipalities (average for Dry and Critically Dry years)	Represents concerns about 1) the increased cost of water and economic cascade, and 2) the cost and opportunity cost of salmon recovery (i.e., less money available for other things interested parties value). The CalSim trend report provides a value for the average acre ft of water diverted to the CVP and SWP in Dry and Critically Dry years. This value is used directly to quantify this performance metric for our model runs.
14: Agriculture production	14: Acres of land in ag production	Represents 1) concerns that water management may reduce yields leading to higher ag prices, 2) desire to allow irrigated ag to continue to produce food in the Valley, and 3) concerns about reduced farming. Obtaining information from DWR surveys on agriculture land in the Central Valley.

Regulatory, Public Health, Infrastructure

15: Non-salmon-oriented recreation	15: Number of days above throw threshold	Represents impacts to recreational waterfowl hunting and recreational opportunities including fishing, boating, and hiking. Could be estimated by # of days above and/or below a bankful flow threshold, values above this flow threshold would be beneficial for boating opportunities, values below this flow threshold would be beneficial for fishing or hiking opportunities.
16: Environmental water reliability	16.1: Annual outflow (cfs) (average for Dry and Critically Dry years)	Represents better reliability of water for salmon and improved habitat quality and connectivity. The CalSim trend report provides a value for average acre ft of annual outflow in Dry and Critically Dry years. This value is used directly to quantify this performance metric for our model runs.
16: Environmental water reliability	16.2: Proportion of unimpaired flow, for wet, average and an average of dry and critically dry water year types for each tributary	Represents better reliability of water for salmon and improved habitat quality and connectivity. Can be estimated by calculating a proportion of unimpaired flow for each tributary.
17: Flood risk and safety	17: Flood frequency and stage for each watershed	Represents concern that removing dams could potentially cause increased flooding. Estimate can be derived from hydrological inputs to model; for each scenario, we can evaluate if there are changes to the flood stage or flood reoccurrence interval.
18: Hydropower generation ability	18: Optimal flow range (cfs) for production during summer months (July-September)	Represents concern that salmonid recovery may impact the economical and environmentally-sound generation of power and delivery of water. The long-term generation for CVP and hydropower reports flow (cfs) for each rim dam that corresponds to positive energy production via hydropower.